UML’s Transformation and What It Signals for Nepal’s Next Election

As Nepal’s post-protest transition drags on, one party has already moved decisively. The CPN-UML is no longer campaigning as a conventional left party competing on policy. It is positioning itself as a vehicle of order, nationalism, and strong leadership at a moment of public anger, political fragmentation, and weak interim state capacity. That shift could shape not just the election outcome, but the tone and risks of the campaign itself.

What just happened:

-The UML’s 11th General Convention, which concluded this week, sealed a concentration of power around party chair KP Sharma Oli.

-Internal rules were amended to remove age and term limits, allowing Oli to continue without a clear succession plan.

-Factional balance, once central to UML politics, has largely disappeared from the party’s top bodies.

-Decision-making now flows vertically, with little visible space for dissent or collective leadership.

Bottom line: UML has moved away from leadership rotation toward a command-style structure.

A harder organisational edge:

In November, the party launched a National Volunteer Force (NVF), justified by Oli as a response to the state’s inability to protect citizens, property, and institutions during the September unrest.

What UML says: The NVF is intended to counter violence and “anarchy,” assist during disasters, and prevent a repeat of vandalism seen during the protests. Oli has explicitly framed it as acting where the state has failed.

Why it raises concern: By asserting a role in maintaining order and peace, the force blurs the line between party mobilisation and public security at a time of heightened political tension.

Bottom line: Even if the NVF remains symbolic, its framing reinforces UML’s claim that only the party can guarantee stability when the state appears weak.

The ideological pivot:

UML’s messaging has shifted in parallel.

-Governance failures and corruption allegations are reframed as attacks on national sovereignty by “hostile forces.”

-Cultural and religious symbolism, particularly around Hindu identity, now features prominently. This appeals to older voters and the dominant political elite unsettled by the leaderless, digital-first nature of the Gen Z protests.

Between the lines:

While the UML retains its communist branding, its campaign playbook increasingly resembles right-wing populist movements elsewhere — privileging majoritarian identity, order, and strongman leadership over class-based or redistributive politics.

How UML plans to win:

The strategy is contrast.

-UML presents itself as the only disciplined force capable of restoring stability, casting youth-led movements and new parties as fragmented and unprepared.

The math: With opposition votes spread across dozens of parties, UML does not need a popular majority. Cohesion on its side may be enough if rivals remain divided.

What to watch:

-Whether the NVF remains rhetorical or takes on a visible role during the campaign period.

-How far nationalist and religious framing crowds out debate on jobs, migration, and corruption.

-Whether the interim government can assert authority against a party openly questioning state capacity.

The test:

This election will not only measure frustration with the old order. It will test whether fear of instability becomes the decisive political force shaping Nepal’s next government.

(Journalist Shrestha is active on the WhatsApp channel nepalexplained, where he shares his views on current affairs.)